Processor shipments climb in Q3 2025 as Windows 10 support ends

Processor shipments in the third quarter of 2025 moved higher again—marking a third consecutive increase. According to John Peddie Research, client CPUs rose 2.2% from the prior quarter, while server chips were up 13.7% compared with the same period a year earlier.

The first two quarters were unusually active amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, but the main driver has now shifted to the end of support for Windows 10. Users aiming to move to Windows 11 often need new hardware to meet stricter security requirements—Secure Boot and TPM 2.0. Many older processors don’t pass compatibility checks, nudging device refresh cycles and lifting demand for new CPUs. OEMs are seeing the uplift in their own shipments and expect the pattern to hold into the next quarter. The picture suggests that software support deadlines can reshape upgrade timelines more reliably than tariff noise.

JPR notes that the client PC market has now grown for three quarters in a row—an unusual pattern, since the third quarter is typically the lone seasonal high. Even so, analysts don’t expect a significant surge in the fourth quarter: growth should be modest and broadly in line with current levels. The current 2.2% increase is already well below the 7.9% jump seen in the second quarter, when tariff concerns sparked a sharper spike. Momentum looks steady rather than exuberant.

JPR also reports a stable shipment mix: desktop and notebook processors remain at roughly a 70/30 split. That mirrors the third quarter of 2024, although notebooks held a slightly larger share in the second quarter of 2025. The server segment shows a similar pattern, growing 2.7% quarter over quarter and 13.7% year over year.