IDC raises 2025 smartphone outlook on iPhone 17 demand, warns of 2026 dip

IDC has nudged its 2025 outlook for the global smartphone market higher. The firm now expects shipments to grow 1.5% year over year to roughly 1.25 billion units. The upgrade largely hinges on robust demand for the iPhone 17 family, which, by IDC’s estimate, would see Apple close the year with record momentum—up 6.1% and shipping more than 247 million phones.

The picture is especially telling in China. IDC says Apple led the market in October and November, and its countrywide forecast for 2025 has swung from contraction to roughly 3% growth. Revenue is rising alongside volumes: IDC projects Apple’s annual revenue to increase by 7.2% and top $261 billion—a rare instance of a single vendor moving the industry’s headline numbers this visibly.

But the tone shifts in 2026. IDC expects smartphone shipments to slip 0.9% year on year, for two reasons. First, Apple: the base model of the next iPhone generation may be pushed out of its usual fall 2026 slot to a later date, potentially as far as early 2027, which could trim iOS shipments by about 4.2%. Second, a broader headwind for the mass market: a global shortage of memory components that would constrain output and nudge prices higher.

That mix forces manufacturers into a trade-off: either lift price tags or pivot toward higher-margin devices at the expense of entry-level lines. IDC expects the market’s average selling price to reach $465, while total market value sets a fresh high at $578.9 billion—fewer devices overall, and consumers likely paying more for them.