Memory price surge could cut smartphone shipments by 10% in 2026

A sharp rise in memory prices could significantly impact the global smartphone market as early as 2026. TrendForce analysts forecast a 10% drop in global shipments to around 1.135 billion devices for the year. In a worst-case scenario, the decline could be even steeper—up to 15%—shrinking the market to 1.061 billion smartphones.

For context, 2025 ended with modest but still positive growth of 2%, with total shipments in the range of 1.24–1.26 billion devices. However, the current surge in memory chip prices is shifting the industry's balance of power. Previously, memory accounted for about 10–15% of a smartphone's cost, but its share in the cost structure has now climbed to 30–40%. This translates to direct pressure on manufacturers' margins and an inevitable increase in average retail prices.

Higher component costs could lead to production cuts for some brands, especially in the mass-market segment. At the same time, the impact of the crisis will be uneven. Samsung is in a stronger position due to vertical integration and its own memory production. Apple may also fare better, as its customer base has historically been more accepting of price hikes.

Most Chinese manufacturers, which target price-sensitive buyers, are likely to face tougher challenges. Brands focusing on affordable models, such as Xiaomi, could be particularly vulnerable to component cost volatility.