Danny Weber
According to Morgan Stanley, GTA 6 could sell 40 million units in four months after its November 19 launch, potentially becoming the most profitable entertainment product ever.
Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley have published an extremely ambitious sales forecast for Grand Theft Auto 6. According to their estimates, Rockstar Games' new title could sell around 40 million copies within just a few months of launch.
Publisher Take-Two Interactive has already confirmed that the official release date for GTA 6 is November 19. With player anticipation and investor interest building, analysts have begun assessing the project's potential commercial success—and the projections are record-breaking.
Morgan Stanley estimates that by the end of the 2027 fiscal year, sales could hit 40 million units. Since the company's fiscal year ends in March 2027, that covers roughly four months after release.
Analyst Matthew Coster noted that Take-Two is in a unique position thanks to the launch of what could be the most profitable entertainment product in history. In his view, if actual sales exceed the forecast, it could significantly boost the company's financial performance.
For context, the previous entry in the series also had a very strong start. GTA V sold about 29 million copies in its first month, after which the pace gradually slowed. To date, total sales of that game have exceeded 230 million copies.
Based on analyst estimates, the series' launch figures look like this: GTA 6 is expected to sell around 40 million units in four months; GTA V moved 29 million in its first month; GTA IV sold 8.5 million in the first month; San Andreas shifted 12 million in six months; GTA III sold 6 million in a year; and Vice City moved 3 million in two months.
There is also market talk about the game possibly costing $80, though the official price has not been announced.
Experts also highlight the potential audience size at launch. According to available estimates, by the time GTA 6 arrives, the global installed base of ninth-generation consoles will be around 127 million units. If Morgan Stanley's forecast holds, the game's penetration could exceed 30% of that installed base.
© A. Krivonosov