DRAM and NAND shortages could last until 2030, says Phison CEO

Phison CEO K.S. Pua has warned of the long-term consequences of DRAM and NAND memory shortages, stating the deficit could last at least until 2030. He described the industry as undergoing a structural shift that could radically transform the electronics market and effectively push out some consumer brands.

In an interview with Chinese media, the Phison head noted that production capacity is already being allocated under conditions once considered unthinkable for the sector. Customers are being asked to make advance payments three years ahead to guarantee access to volume. According to internal assessments by fabs, the shortage could persist until the end of the decade, and in a worst-case scenario, even longer. This situation is driven by explosive demand from AI infrastructure and data centers.

Pua forecasts that by 2026, many consumer electronics manufacturers will be forced to discontinue product lines due to an inability to secure memory supplies. In the second half of 2026, he believes a significant number of low-margin brands could exit the market, with budget devices virtually disappearing. This will create a temporary vacuum that will only be filled after supply stabilizes.

Additional pressure on the market will come from the next generation of AI platforms, including the NVIDIA Rubin infrastructure. According to the Phison CEO's estimate, this ecosystem alone could consume over 20% of global NAND production, and corporate demand—not yet fully accounted for in forecasts—is set to grow at an accelerated pace. As a result, the industry may face a consumer product winter, where the launch of retail devices is delayed due to component shortages.