Omdia forecasts 12% decline in PC shipments to 245M units in 2026 due to 60% memory price increases, with budget segment hardest hit and premium devices stable.
© A. Krivonosov
Analyst firm Omdia has released its forecast for personal computer shipments in 2026. According to their analysis, memory price increases of 60% in the first quarter, combined with moderate fluctuations throughout the year, will lead to an overall decline in PC shipments of about 12%, down to 245 million units. Desktop computer sales are expected to drop by 10% to 53.2 million units, while notebook shipments will fall by 12% to 192.2 million units.
If the memory shortage and price hikes become more severe, the decline in shipments could exceed 15%. Geopolitical factors also influence the forecast, adding further uncertainty for manufacturers and suppliers in the global market.
The biggest impact will be felt in the budget segment. Sales of PCs priced under $500 could plummet by nearly a third, down to 62.1 million units, while ChromeOS devices may see a 27.6% drop. In contrast, premium solutions and macOS computers are expected to show relative stability, with potential price increases due to only moderate supply reductions.
Overall, the PC market in 2026 will present diverging trends: the mass-market segment faces declining sales, while the premium device segment remains resilient. Experts note that manufacturers will need to adjust their procurement strategies and pricing policies amid rising component costs and high market uncertainty.