Smartphone price increase forecast for 2026 from memory chip costs

Counterpoint Research analysts are warning that smartphone prices could rise in 2026. The main reason cited is a sharp increase in memory chip costs. According to the company, mobile RAM prices have climbed by about 50% compared to the previous quarter, while NAND storage costs have surged by more than 90%. As a result, manufacturers will likely have to pass some of these growing expenses on to consumers.

The price hike is hitting budget devices the hardest. In a typical smartphone costing up to $200 with 6GB of LPDDR4X RAM and 128GB of eMMC storage, memory components can now account for around 43% of the total bill of materials. That's roughly a quarter higher than before. For manufacturers, this poses a serious challenge because margins in the budget segment are traditionally razor-thin.

Mid-range models priced around $400–$600 face a slightly more stable situation, but costs are still rising. Phones with 8GB of LPDDR5X RAM and 256GB of UFS 4.0 storage may see RAM expenses increase by about 15% and storage costs by roughly 11%. If these devices launch later in the year, those figures could climb to 20% and 16%, respectively.

Flagship models are dealing with an additional challenge: rising prices for new processors. Analysts estimate that smartphones with 16GB of LPDDR5X RAM and 512GB of UFS 4.1 storage could see their chipset costs jump by approximately $100–$150. Overall, Counterpoint forecasts that budget phones might get about $30 more expensive, while premium devices could see price increases of $150–$200.

Senior analyst Shenghao Bai notes that the sharp rise in memory prices is having a structural impact on smartphone costs. In 2026, manufacturers will struggle to balance component expenses, gross margins, and shipment targets. Those heavily reliant on entry-level models to gain market share will face significant short-term loss risks.