Analysts forecast a 2026 smartphone market downturn, with Android shipments dropping 15% and Apple gaining share. Learn about rising costs and shifting user preferences.
© A. Krivonosov
The smartphone market could face a significant downturn in 2026, with Android devices expected to bear the brunt of the impact, according to analyst forecasts. A recent Morgan Stanley report identifies a sharp increase in memory and storage costs as the key factor already reshaping the industry's competitive landscape.
Experts predict Android smartphone shipments may drop by 15% this year, while iPhones could lose only about 2%. This gap would effectively make Apple the sole major manufacturer capable of expanding its market share during the crisis. The primary reason is rising component prices, which particularly affect Android brands forced to either raise prices or reduce margins.
Changing user preferences add another layer to the situation. Analysts note that the rate of users switching to iPhones has reached a five-year high. Among Android manufacturers, only Google Pixel maintains positive momentum in attracting new users, while most other brands are experiencing customer attrition. Despite this, Apple's influence remains unmatched due to its significantly larger user base.
Against this backdrop, Apple has already strengthened its position as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, surpassing Samsung. Morgan Stanley estimates show Apple's new user acquisition rate increased from 6% to 11%, while Pixel's rate declined from 33% to 28%. These trends suggest pressure on the Android segment will only intensify in coming months, with Apple potentially emerging as the main beneficiary of the current market challenges.