According to data from Omdia, global smartphone shipments reached 298.5 million units in the first quarter of 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase. Despite the uptick, experts caution that this result stems largely from temporary factors, not a genuine surge in demand.
Major manufacturers including Samsung, Apple and Xiaomi moved early to expand shipments, fearing upcoming price increases for memory and other components. This pushed shipments higher, but actual sales are not keeping pace. The result is a growing market imbalance: inventories are piling up at warehouses and in sales channels, while end-user demand remains subdued. High prices and economic uncertainty are leading consumers to postpone upgrades, especially in the premium segment.
Samsung stayed on top with 65.4 million units shipped (+8%). Apple followed in second place at 60.4 million (+10%), thanks in part to the success of the iPhone 17 series. Meanwhile, Xiaomi recorded the steepest decline among the top five — down 19% to 33.8 million units, a reflection of mounting pressure on the budget segment. OPPO (which includes realme and OnePlus) and vivo saw shipments fall by 6% and 7%, respectively. The outlier was Honor, which boosted its shipments by 19%, largely thanks to growth in international markets.
Analysts point to the market entering a supply disruption phase, driven by rising prices for key components such as RAM, flash memory, and processors. Manufacturers and distributors have been stockpiling devices ahead of time to lock in costs, which has temporarily inflated the quarterly figures.
This boost, however, is expected to be short-lived. As early as the second quarter, a correction is anticipated: built-up stock will need to be cleared, and shipment volumes are set to cool. Pressure could mount further in the second half of 2026 as component costs continue to rise and consumers’ purchasing power remains tight.
According to Omdia, the market is gradually moving from aggressive expansion toward cautious stabilization. Manufacturers will be forced to trim shipments, manage inventory carefully, and defend margins — moves that will limit the industry's overall growth potential.