TrendForce warns of a 2026 slowdown as DRAM and NAND prices surge, lifting smartphone and laptop prices 5–15%, cutting output, and pressuring smaller brands.
© A. Krivonosov
New figures from TrendForce suggest the global electronics market will cool noticeably in 2026. With geopolitical tension persisting and inflation proving sticky, consumer demand keeps edging lower, while rising memory prices are setting off a fresh round of device markups. Manufacturers are nudging price tags higher, which only adds weight to an already slowing market.
Forecasts have been dialed back. Smartphone production in 2026 is now expected to be 2% below last year’s level, a reversal from earlier expectations of modest growth. Laptop output is projected to decline by about 2.4% instead of the previously anticipated 1.7% increase. Should the memory shortage deepen, the pullback could be sharper.
The key driver of higher costs is pricier DRAM. In the fourth quarter of 2025, contract prices for DRAM rose by more than 75% year over year, pushing smartphone costs up by roughly 8–10%. Further increases in both DRAM and NAND are expected in 2026, which would add another 5–7% to end-user device prices. The pressure will be felt first and hardest in budget models, which may either lose production share or climb noticeably in price.
Smaller brands are already struggling to secure memory amid tight supply, and the industry is drifting toward deeper consolidation. Larger manufacturers are holding and growing their positions, while weaker players risk slipping out of the market entirely.
Laptops are entering the same squeeze: the combined share of DRAM and NAND in their bill of materials could exceed 20% in 2026. If those costs are passed through, average laptop prices are likely to rise by 5–15%. That would cool demand, especially at the low end, where buyers may postpone purchases or turn to the second-hand market. Even in the premium tier, some customers may settle for less powerful configurations.
The monitor market is taking a secondary hit. Memory accounts for very little in displays, but falling PC shipments tend to drag monitor sales down with them. TrendForce now expects global monitor shipments to decline by 0.4%, replacing an earlier forecast for growth.