The US Commerce Department may grant a license to export Nvidia's H200 AI accelerator to China, easing tech curbs and lifting Nvidia's China market outlook.
© A. Krivonosov
Nvidia is awaiting a decision from the U.S. Department of Commerce on a license to export a more powerful artificial intelligence accelerator to China—the Nvidia H200 chip. Sources familiar with the Trump administration’s policy say the department is weighing whether to partially loosen the restrictions in place on cutting-edge U.S. technologies.
The H200 ranks among the company’s most capable GPUs. Built on the Hopper architecture and manufactured by TSMC on a 4 nm process, it carries 141 GB of HBM3e memory and offers bandwidth up to 4.8 TB/s, making it suitable for large language models and high-performance systems. The accelerator is roughly twice as powerful as the Nvidia H20, the most advanced chip the company is currently allowed to ship to China.
U.S. concerns that advanced technologies could reach China’s military sector led to earlier export controls. The ban on the most powerful Nvidia chips has both reduced the company’s revenue in China and sped up the rise of local alternatives such as Huawei’s Ascend lineup. According to analyst data, Huawei Ascend now holds about 79% of China’s AI-accelerator market.
Representatives of the White House and the Commerce Department have not offered direct comment on a potential authorization for the H200, while emphasizing that national security and U.S. technological leadership remain the priority.
At the same time, Washington continues to selectively ease export rules: it recently approved shipments of up to 70,000 next-generation Nvidia Blackwell accelerators to Humain in Saudi Arabia and G42 in the UAE. These chips are set to underpin the next wave of AI systems.
The H200 deliberations are unfolding as restrictions on China are being revisited. Under a recent bilateral agreement, the U.S. said it would lower average tariffs on Chinese imports to 48%, a move that could signal a broader recalibration of export policy.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management notes that rule changes could materially lift Nvidia’s outlook in China. Under current conditions, revenue growth from the country is estimated at roughly 60%, but if H200 exports resume, one estimate puts that figure at 72–75%. The spread underscores how a single product approval could sway Nvidia’s trajectory in the market—and why this decision will be watched closely.