TrendForce cuts its 2026 outlook for global laptop shipments to 172.9M (-5.4%) as memory costs surge, risking 10.1% drop; OLED panels remain a bright spot.
© A. Krivonosov
TrendForce has once again cut its outlook for global laptop shipments in 2026, flagging a steeper slide than previously anticipated. The firm now expects deliveries to fall 5.4% year over year to about 172.9 million units, versus an earlier projection of a 2.4% decline.
The downgrade, TrendForce notes, stems from a mix of pressures. With the global economy recovering only weakly, consumers are spending more cautiously. At the same time, a rapid run-up in memory prices is squeezing notebook makers’ margins and limiting how aggressively they can price new models. That combination is forcing brands to take a restrained stance on inventory management, promotions, and product configurations.
Analysts also caution that the outlook could worsen. If memory cost inflation fails to cool to more reasonable levels by the second quarter of 2026, the market may shift to a more adverse scenario—one in which global laptop shipments drop by as much as 10.1% from the prior year. In other words, without relief on component costs, the contraction could deepen.
Weakness in notebooks is set to ripple through adjacent categories. TrendForce expects shipments of laptop displays to decline by roughly 7.9%. Even so, OLED panels remain a rare bright spot, with projections still pointing to growth in that niche.