IDC says global PC shipments rose 8.1% in 2025, driven by Windows 11 upgrades and stockpiling ahead of DRAM/NAND shortages that could lift prices in 2026.
© A. Krivonosov
The global PC market posted unexpectedly strong growth at the end of 2025, but the upbeat numbers come with a caveat. A new IDC report estimates shipments rose 9.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 8.1% for the full year compared with 2024. The surge landed squarely in the final quarter—driven less by vibrant demand than by vendors racing to get ahead of an impending memory crunch.
One catalyst was the official end of support for Windows 10, which set off a replacement cycle and lifted sales of new PCs running Windows 11 with Copilot support. Companies also moved to build inventory amid months of tariff uncertainty. Yet the decisive push came from a rapidly deteriorating memory market.
PC makers began stockpiling aggressively, worried about serious disruptions to DRAM and NAND supplies. Much of today’s memory output is flowing into data centers and AI infrastructure, leaving the consumer segment exposed. Many vendors chose to buy early even knowing it would nudge prices higher. Problems are looming not only for RAM but also for SSDs and several other components, and the shortage could persist through 2028.
IDC notes the PC landscape could look very different a year from now. System prices have already started to rise, and manufacturers may even trim standard memory configurations to stretch limited supplies. Experts also caution that market shares could be reshuffled: big brands with guaranteed deliveries will have the upper hand, while smaller and regional players may struggle to get through this period. For buyers, that likely means higher average PC prices in 2026 and a product mix skewing toward more expensive models. In short, the recovery is real, but it rests more on anxiety than momentum.