IDC forecasts 1% smartphone growth in 2025 despite Trump tariffs; iOS up 3.9%. On-device AI and foldables support demand; a foldable iPhone may land in 2026.
© A. Krivonosov
Research firm IDC has revised its 2025 global smartphone outlook and now expects 1% growth despite tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. The team had previously projected a decline amid potential price increases, yet the market has proved sturdier than anticipated. A one‑percent uptick may look modest, but against the tariff backdrop it reads as a clear sign of resilience.
Apple is set to be the main engine: IDC notes that iOS could expand by 3.9% in 2025. That momentum would help offset the negative effects of U.S. tariff policy. IDC research director Nabila Popal cautions that uncertainty remains high, while adding that demand is holding steady across most regions and manufacturers are actively diversifying production. Taken together, the forecast suggests consumers are still prioritizing upgrades when the value is clear.
Beyond the iPhone, IDC points to two forces likely to lift shipments: on-device generative AI and the growing appeal of foldable phones. The firm expects these trends to support steady industry growth through 2029, a horizon that hints at a more durable recovery rather than a short-lived bounce.
Apple has yet to participate in the foldable segment, but IDC indicates that this could change in 2026, when the company plans to unveil its first iPhone with a flexible display. Given the brand’s pull, that step alone could give the entire category fresh momentum and nudge rivals to sharpen their own playbooks.